The Anchor House, Inc.

By Clint Cox

Rare Earth a “No Show” at WTO!

By Clint Cox

There are many ways to measure the abundance of the elements. We can look at the universe, the solar system, the sun, the moon, the seawater, even the backyard of a guy I know!

For example, the moon has a large amount of REEs.  According to G. Jeffrey Taylor:

The Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT) dominates the nearside of the Moon. “KREEP” is an acronym for lunar rocks that are high in potassium (K), rare earth elements (REE), and phosphorous (P).

It’s difficult to see the REEs from here!

The article is quite interesting and provides some compelling info about rare earths on the moon, but we may be getting (decades?) ahead of ourselves here. Let’s dig a little closer to home.

Let’s focus on the earth’s crust (called “crustal abundance”) because that is where we find all of the good stuff that we scoop up and transform into the latest improvements that we refer to as our “standard of living”.

Thulium (Tm) is the rarest of the rare earths.  There is less than one hundredth of the amount of thulium in the earth’s crust as cerium (Ce).  For those of you out there who are big fans of parts per million (ppm), Tm clocks in at approximately o.5 ppm while Ce achieves about 66 ppm.  As a whole, the REEs total about 220 ppm in the earth’s crust.

Thulium and Cerium in metal form — vacuum sealed to avoid oxidation!

When rare earth oxide (REO) is expressed as a percentage, such as 3.5% REO, this can be converted to 35,000 ppm. This offers some guidance when looking at exploration companies that have difficulty attaining the crustal abundance of 220 ppm. But please remember, there is more to a potential rare earth project than just the ppm (as explained below)!

Now for some comparative perspective.  Thulium — as rare as it is — is more abundant than silver or gold.  Cerium is more common than lead or tin, and about even with copper in the earth’s crust. So why the hoopla?  A LOT of copper has been mined over the years.  And people just don’t seem to get as excited over those new lead discoveries as they used to. If rare earths are everywhere, do they deserve to be deemed “Rare”? I think so, for one simple reason: It is rare to find an economic “Rare Earth” deposit.

I won’t get into what makes an economic deposit here, but it is exceedingly difficult to find the right concentration of the right REE mineral with the right element distribution in the right location with the right metallurgy and the right market balance at the right time. Yikes!  That sounds pretty tough to find, and it is!

10… 9… 8… 7… 6… 5… 4… 3…

References

Lide, D.R. (1997) Abundance of elements in the earth’s crust and sea, CRC Handbook of Physics and Chemistry, 78th edn., CRC Press Boca Raton, Florida.

By Clint Cox

All rare earth minerals are not created equal.

Some have a light rare earth (LREE) distribution of elements, some are more heavy rare earth (HREE) laden.  Some are carbonates, some are silicates, or phosphates.  Some have a high percentage of REEs within the mineral, some do not.  Some have been processed, and some have not.  And — quite frankly — some are pretty, and some are not.

This week we’ll focus on the lightweight (LREE) division of the rare earth world, and start with the creaky past champion, now sprawled on the sidelines hoping for another shot at the title: monazite.

Monazite

Monazite used to rule the market, being readily available in placer deposits around the world — from the United States, to Australia, India, and beyond.  Here is a shot of some monazite from a placer deposit:

Monazite is a phosphate mineral mostly enriched in the LREE, and has a theoretical REO% of just under 70% (which means that if you have monazite, you may have up to 70% rare earths in the mineral).  However, even monazites may vary wildly, with some having elevated levels of neodymium (Nd) or other elements. One of the current drawbacks to monazite is that it can contain high levels of thorium (Th), which is radioactive and must be handled with environmental care.  It is possible that Th may become a viable nuclear fuel in the future, which may change the future outlook for this mineral. But for now let us reminisce and a take a look at some good-looking monazite from the Smithsonian:

And finally, some monazite (mixed in there somewhere with the magnetite!) from the Deep Sands Project in Utah:

So what happened?  Why was monazite knocked from its throne?  The new light weight challenger was discovered in California.

Bastnaesite

Known by multi-spelled variations of the same name: “bastnaesite”, “bastnesite”, or “bastnäsite” is a carbonate mineral that came to prominence at Mountain Pass in California, and then gained further stardom at Bayan Obo, and then Sichuan in China. Bastnesite (I will try to give each spelling it’s share of the spotlight!) has a 75% theoretical rare earth percentage, and has a nice distribution of the LREEs. Let’s take a gander at some bastnäsite from Mountain Pass:

Nice looking stuff from the Birthday claim located a short distance from the eventual minesite at Mt. Pass. One of the differences between the Mountain Pass bastnaesite and the Bayan Obo bastnaesite, is that the Mountain Pass mineral was the primary ore while Bayan Obo is a by-product of iron mining.

The Bayan Obo bastnaesite (at least, that is what they told me on the tour — my Chinese is not so good!):

Here is a shot of some bastnaesite from Thor Lake in Canada (it’s the reddish stuff):

There are a number of other locations around the world looking at bastnaesite.  Thor Lake has it, a number of locations in China has it. Bear Lodge in Wyoming lists bastnaesite as one of its target minerals.

There are a number of LREE contenders, but these two minerals have dominated the LREE division of rare earths for decades. However, keep in mind that even as monazite was eventually knocked aside, bastnaesite may also be blindsided by another LREE mineral in the future.

The thrills just keep coming!

Please feel free to use the Contact page for questions or comments about rare earths.

By Clint Cox

Is the West just bluffing or is the rare earth industry headed for a bitter showdown? It’s a bit melodramatic, but let’s examine the facts:

First, there was the lead-up. The rare earth industry has known for some time that China has supplied the majority of Rare Earth Elements (REE) to the world. Projections have shown that this will likely remain the case for the foreseeable future. China also consumes an increasing amount of their own REEs. China has export quotas and tariffs on rare earths. The West needs these resources, but has very few options outside of China. The tension is getting more palpable. A few weeks ago the opening gambit was played — it was announced that the US and the EU were preparing to launch a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO):

http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/1244719922.23

According to the EUbusiness article:

“The materials include tungsten, copper, bauxite, antimony, yellow phosporous, magnesium carbonate, molybdenum, rare earths and indium.”

http://in.biz.yahoo.com/090623/137/batrx8.html

According to the above Reuters story published at Yahoo Finance India™:

“The materials expected to be covered by the case include yellow phosphorous, antimony, bauxite, coke, fluorspar, indium, magnesium carbonate, molybdenum, rare earths, silicon, talc, tin, tungsten and zinc.

In a move that may have been an attempt to forestall U.S. and European action, Beijing said on Monday it was cutting export taxes on a range of materials, including some used to make steel.”

It is interesting that Beijing is already responding to the WTO threat. It is also interesting that the US and EU went ahead with the formal complaint:

http://china.globaltimes.cn/top-photo/2009-06/439234.html

The Chinese are not happy with the complaint, and Mei Xinyu called it “ridiculous and unacceptable.”  Interesting!  The article also states:

The US and the EU have “staged such kind of shows” several times before, Mei added.

But US Trade Representative Ron Kirk said in Washington yesterday that “China’s measures appear to be part of a troubling industrial policy aimed at providing substantial competitive advantages for the Chinese industries using these inputs.”

“We are going to the WTO today to enforce our rights, so we can provide American manufacturers with a fair competitive environment and put more American workers back on the job,” Kirk told AFP.

A little back and forth. Bloomberg reported China’s counterpunch (although, for some reason, they failed to mention the rare earths!):

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=aYIqDM13REqY

Today, China called for a WTO probe of U.S. restrictions on poultry imports and the trade body’s former chief, Mike Moore, warned that the world is in “dangerous waters” as protectionism increases.

Yikes.  The dreaded “P” word. The industry will be watching this rather closely. Here comes the really fascinating part for Rare Earth fans — if you take a gander at The Office of the United States Trade Representative announcement regarding the WTO case you find the following raw materials included:

http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/fact-sheets/2009/june/wto-case-challenging-chinas-export-restraints-raw-materi

The dispute filed today addresses various unprocessed and processed forms of nine inputs of key interest to a wide range of U.S. industries:  bauxite, coke, fluorspar, magnesium, manganese, silicon carbide, silicon metal, yellow phosphorus and zinc.

Where are the Rare Earths?  I don’t have an answer right now, but it looks like they are not there! Are they included in the complaint?  The WTO doesn’t have the complaint listed yet, but I will keep checking. Is this much ado about nothing? That is quite possible.

The US and EU are obviously upset about raw materials, but what about Japan?  They are a substantial consumer of REEs from China. Will they be joining the fray? According to a story at www.steelguru.com (as sourced from www.platts.com):

http://steelguru.com/news/index/2009/06/26/OTk5MTg%3D/Japan_unlikely_to_follow_US_and_EU_in_WTO_filing_against_China.html

Although Japan appears unmoved yet by the US and the EU moves, the Japanese government nevertheless has voiced concerns over China’s production and export restrictions on rare earth. The Japanese trade ministry continues to seek talks on a bilateral basis, as it was more important for Japan to understand the ultimate aim behind China’s export restrictions, possibly leading to a joint solution.

It appears that Japan will continue to dialogue with China. Indeed, the title of the article is “Japan unlikely to follow US and EU in WTO filing against China”.

More on China’s response can be found at the English version of People’s Daily Online entitled “Absurd double standards on China’s resources”. I think the title says it all. They are not happy.

What does all of this mean to the market?  Not much, at this point — we’re not even sure that rare earths are included in the complaint!  There is lots of posturing, but the market continues to function.  There will be increased dialogue while the WTO encourages all concerned parties to work out their differences.  This process can take several years, and the entire sector may look different by the time the powers that be have concluded their arguments.

We will continue to track the story and see if REEs will be a “No-Show” or smack in the middle of a nasty WTO Showdown.

Please direct comments or questions to the Contact page.

By Clint Cox

With this post, I will try a new format.  I will attempt to to give brief excerpts of Rare Earth news with links and brief commentary.  Please feel free to leave feedback in the “Contact” section.

In the midst of relatively stagnant rare earth element (REE) prices and an uncertain economy, several deals have emerged to mark a massive shift for the rare earths industry.

China is actively pursuing more REEs.  Downstream companies are moving up the stream. And the market is being smacked with surprises on a regular basis!

Let’s get right to it:

“Rare Earths” the Hot Topic at Vancouver Show
Before the Cambridge House Conference June 7-8, several newsletter writers began to cover the rare earths.  Some of their pronouncements made a big splash in the Canadian junior exploration market — affecting stock prices dramatically to the upside.  Then the Vancouver show had no less than four speakers mentioned rare earths from the podium during their talks.  Instant sizzle!  Suffice it to say that there will be many new rare earth companies in the coming months as new players wade into the water to ride the wave.  Don’t get me wrong, there may be some very interesting projects that come forward, but there will be (and is) some ugliness.

Chinese Company Buying Majority Stake in Lynas Corporation
In February of this year, Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX: LYC) suspended their Mount Weld project due to “uncertainty concerning the financing structure”.  This suspension was primarily due to bondholders refusing to release funds to Lynas. They were eventually able to settle with the bondholders, but Lynas didn’t receive the hoped for amount.

Many investors were looking to the Mount Weld project as the great hope for the industry, a non-China resource with the possibility for near-term production.

The big question in the industry has been “Where will Lynas get the money to complete their project?” A number of people speculated that they might turn to China, and indeed they did!

From a May 1, 2009 Lynas Press Release:

“Lynas Corporation Limited (ASX: LYC) is delighted to announce the introduction of a proposed new majority shareholder, China Non-Ferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. (CNMC).”

The Chinese will end up with 51.6% of Lynas, and will provide needed capital and assistance with acquisition of proper financing for the project. Much of the sales-pitch for Lynas has been based on having a REE resource outside of China.  However, now the project will be under majority Chinese ownership — this is an interesting twist, to say the least! The Lynas board will now be made up of eight members – the four existing plus four appointed by CNMC.  Nicholas Curtis is to remain the Executive Chairman and will have the casting vote.  The Chinese are intimately familiar with this industry, and they have piqued our interest to follow what they will do with Mount Weld.

Lynas now says that they hope to be in production within 12 months of receiving their financing (in the amount of US$366 million).

How this will affect the market is, as yet, unknown.  But it is clear from this deal, and the one below, that the Chinese are very serious about extending their position in the marketplace.

More Here:
http://www.lynascorp.com/page.asp?category_id=8&page_id=27

Chinese Buying into Arafura
Arafura Resources Ltd (ASX: ARU) of Australia recently signed a deal with a subsidiary of East China Exploration & Development Bureau (ECE) that gives ECE a 25% stake in ARU in exchange for approximately $17 million.

ARU’s Nolans Bore project is a fairly complex undertaking that will attempt to bring four separate products to market:
1.    rare earths
2.    phosphoric acid
3.    uranium
4.    calcium chloride
The REEs are slated to bring in the lion’s share of the revenue, but the other products will be critical to the success of the project.

The capital cost for the project is expected to be in the US$100s of millions.

The rare earth-bearing minerals at Nolans Bore will skew towards the lighter end of REE distribution.  They are reporting a resource (including measured, indicated, and inferred) of 30.3 million tonnes at 2.8% rare earth oxide (REO).

The key for this project moving forward is to see how ARU raises the capital necessary to complete this project.

More Here:
http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72102?oid=82059&sn=Detail

Vietnam Gets into the Game
Toyota Tsusho Corporation, a trading house affiliated with Toyota Motor Corporation, cut a deal late last year with the state-run mining agency to develop the Dong Pao rare earth deposit in Vietnam.

This site has some good potential, and they expect to be producing 5000 tonnes annually starting in 2011.  The rare earth-bearing mineral in this deposit is bastnaesite – the same mineral that was mined at Mountain Pass (mentioned above) and is currently mined at Bayan Obo in China.

This deal affirms that there are deposits “off the RADAR” that may make an impact in the industry

The interesting thing about this one is that the industry has been watching the usual public companies in North America and Australia, and this site may come to production before most (all?) of the others.

More Here:
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20081202/toyota-group-start-importing-rare-earth-metal-element.htm

NeoMaterials Extends Their Reach
NeoMaterial Technologies Inc. (TSX: NEM.TO) recently signed an agreement with Mineracao Taboca S.A. to investigate the potential of producing a commercially viable heavy rare earth concentrate from Taboca’s tin mining operations at Pitinga.

The rare earth-bearing mineral at Pitinga is xenotime, which has a favorable distribution towards the heavy rare earths.

NeoMaterials is a significant player in the REE industry.  They make a variety of REE oxides and magnetic powders, and employ approximately 1,300 employees in a number of facilities throughout the world.  With this deal, it seems that they are hoping to reach back upstream and secure their own supply of concentrate.

More Here:
http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/15042009/30/link-f-cnw-neo-material-technologies-signs-development-agreement-brazilian-rare.html

This Week’s Picture:  Carbon Coating!

Thin sections (rock samples cut into a wafer thin block) are used for a variety of identification methods.  One instrument used to identify REE minerals is the Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Before thin section samples are placed in the SEM, they are coated with carbon by burning up some filament in a vacuum. That’s hot stuff!

I am working on a new format that will (hopefully) serve the Rare Earth community better.  The new format will be up by June 22nd.

Thank you for your patience!

By Clint Cox

Back in May I visited the Bear Lodge rare earth property of Rare Element Resources.  I have wanted to visit the site for quite some time, so it was a highly anticipated trip.  In the end (and throughout), it was quite enjoyable, and incredibly educational.  I was able to spend the better part of two days with several top-notch geologists who had many years of experience with rare earths.

I flew into Rapid City, South Dakota and drove from there to Sundance, Wyoming.  This is a great part of the country with the Black Hills, Mount Rushmore, Crazy Horse, the Vore Buffalo jump, and plenty of outdoor distractions.

We stayed in Sundance, and it was short drive on paved roads and then another short drive though the property on gravel roads to reach Bull Hill, the primary target of rare earth exploration at Bear Lodge:

Bull Hill at Bear Lodge

In its recently released 43-101 report, Rare Element Resources stated that they have over 9.8 million tons (this is 8.89 million metric tonnes) at 4.1% REO.  The primary rare earth minerals are ancylite and bastnaesite.  The infrastructure is very good at Bear Lodge, and we will watch the company closely as they look to develop their understanding of the property further.  We await the results of their metallurgical work, as they are trying to be the first to process ancylite as a primary REE mineral.

Special thanks to Don Ranta (President of Rare Element Resources) and Jim Clark (my host, and Vice President of Exploration) for allowing me to visit the site!

By Clint Cox

Welcome to the New Year!  The Rare Earth industry is one that has the ability to humble us all — so please view the following comments as “possibilities” and not “prognostications”. Without further adieu, key issues to watch for in 2009:

The Economy
This is the story for rare earth in 2009. How bad will it get? How will it affect the REE market? Rare earth prices have begun to drop.

In brief, this year could be catastrophic for global economics. Bouts of panic may pop from the globe like a truckload of kettlecorn. Spending on rare earth exploration and consumer end-products that use REEs could deteriorate dramatically. This could be a tough year.

World Conflict
Depending on which nations are involved in conflict in 2009, and how bad it gets, there may be an increased desire for the REEs for use in military applications. It is somewhat tragic to view war as a positive for this market, but it is possible.

Current Projects
Lynas Corporation says they are on schedule to be producing REE product by the 4Q of this year. If there are delays or problems it may affect the perception of the rare earth market. The industry is hoping for success in this (and other projects). If Lynas is successful, it could lead to funding for other projects. If Lynas has delays, it could provide opportunities for other companies, or it could taint the entire sector – it is very difficult to know.

Financing for many current exploration projects is certainly in question.

That said, the world is desperately in need of viable projects outside of China that can compete economically.

Chinese Output / Stockpiling
What will Chinese output be this year? Will the iron mine at Bayan Obo (which has enough REE by-product to make it the largest REE mine in the world) continue at the current pace if there is a downturn? The Chinese have already declared that they will create a stockpile of 300,000 tonnes of concentrate. That is a lot of concentrate! That will hang over the light rare earth (LREE) market like a dark cloud for years to come.

How much production can the South China clays handle? Will Sichuan regain previous form? There are always surprises in Chinese production – undoubtedly, this year will provide more fireworks.

Chinese Consolidation
The consolidation has begun. The plan is to consolidate each of the three REE mining districts – Bayan Obo/Baotou, Sichuan, and South China Clays – under one Chinese company each. This will create substantial efficiencies and allow the Chinese regulatory agencies to more closely control the flow of REEs.

Chinese Export Quotas
The Chinese have once again cut export quotas for the first 6 months of 2009 to 15,043 tonnes versus 22,780 tonnes in 2008 (http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/36952/).

Will this have impact? With companies outside of China working down their own stockpiles, will they need to purchase as much? These are issues to watch closely this year.

Who Blinks First?
Chinese officials have made it very clear: If foreign manufacturing companies move their facilities to China, they will be guaranteed a steady supply of rare earths. Many technology companies are reluctant to do this because they want to protect their intellectual property, but will the temptation of an endless REE supply be too much?

The Unexpected
This will probably remain a staple in the annual market outlook for years to come. New technologies, new exploration discoveries, basic economics, and geopolitics can all reverberate through our small industry. It is the nature of this fascinating sector.

I wish you all the very best in 2009!

Please take time to contact me with any questions you may have on the “Contact” page.

By Clint Cox

Back in January of this year, I wrote an article entitled “10 Things to Watch for in Rare Earth in 2008″.  Late December seems like a good time to review my thoughts and see how the market played out.

Here are the 10 Things with my updated comments after each in italics:

The economy. If the world economy (or even the US) goes into recession, then there is the distinct possibility that rare earth businesses may suffer a setback. Key REE uses such as catalysts for cracking petroleum, phosphors for color screens, and many magnetic applications may be curtailed somewhat by a significant cutback in spending. The economy serves as a backdrop to the entire industry.

The economy has clearly hit a recession, and it has affected the REE market most dramatically in this 4th Quarter.  Prices are steady or slumping for the majority of REEs.

Chinese production. The Chinese cut production in some of their most prolific mining areas in 2007 in order to better control and consolidate the industry as well as address environmental concerns. There is also talk of shifting mining operations from one part of Bayan Obo–the largest rare earth mine in the world–to another that has more iron (the primary target for the mine) and less REE (considered a by-product). How this will affect output remains unclear.

The Chinese continue to consolidate their production operations into three distinct areas: Bayan Obo/Baotou, Sichuan, and South China. More details on production output below.

Chinese export quotas and tariffs. There has been a steady trend of decreasing exports and increasing tariffs for the rare earths coming out of China. China is absorbing more and more of its own REE production. The industry has embraced this new reality, but if there is a surprise cessation of export for any given element it might send shockwaves through end users. The tariffs have also been accepted, but will hopefully be increased at a slow and steady pace.

Export quotas have been cut slightly for 2009, but the industry seems to be adjusting to the trend of slightly increasing tariffs and reduction of export quotas.  This may force more production using REEs by foreign companies into China, as the Chinese authorities have made it quite clear that any manufacturing facility inside China that requires rare earths will be supplied with whatever amount of rare earths that they require.

Progress of current mining projects. There is great interest from the entire industry in getting new mines in production outside of China. There are a number of possibilities spanning the globe that hope to fulfill this need. Established players in the REE industry are gaining momentum by publishing pre-feasibility studies, raising money, moving dirt, and staking new claims. Progress is important for these established projects, because according to Roskill 40,000 tonnes of new material may be needed by 2012. The key to understanding new supply is how well the projects in the pipeline meet the current and future needs of the marketplace. Also, technological innovations in mining and processing may have a positive impact these current projects.

There has been slow, but steady progress on a number of REE projects. It has become more difficult to raise money in this economic environment, but many companies continue to make deals and explore their properties.  It is unclear what impact the economic crisis will have on the viability of current project schedules.

New REE mining projects. The rare earth sector in an attractive growth industry that is beginning to pull new players to the REE table with the power of a neodymium supermagnet! With increasing publicity and a growing realization about the supply deficit, new players are sure to begin surfacing soon. We can only wait with eager anticipation to see if new companies may become public in 2008.

Many, many companies assayed for rare earths in 2008 — and many found them!  We will have to wait to see if there are any significant projects from these new results, as it will take some time to determine the economic viability of the grade, tonnage, and metallurgical processes associated with each potential site.

New uses. The industry is rapidly developing new technologies that utilize the rare earth elements. Will 2008 bring a breakthrough technology? REE history is filled with sudden shifts in demand based on new technologies.

There were no significant breakthroughs that shook the market this year.  There were certain elements that saw increased demand — and some that waned, but nothing like the shocking demand caused by the introduction of Nd magnets back in 1983.  The new applications will come, but we must wait at least another year it seems.

Stockpiling. The Committee on Assessing the Need for a Defense Stockpile (part of the National Research Council) has named several rare earths in their recent report “Managing Materials for a 21st Century Military”. The US may not be stockpiling REEs yet, but they are certainly taking a close look at it. Japan has also considered the matter. Stockpiling can affect the industry in a number of ways. In the short term, it could certainly take some product off of the market and drive prices up. However, as rare earth needs can shift over time, stockpiled elements may become less useful for their intended purpose and placed back on the market (thus, unexpectedly lowering prices). The timing and size of possible stockpiling is unknown, but further steps maybe taken in 2008.

With the exception of the economy, stockpiling may have been the biggest story in the REE market in 2008.  The Chinese announced that they would be stockpiling 300,000 tonnes of concentrate, and recovering all of the REEs from the Bayan Obo mine (instead of the 15-20% they currently recover). This may drastically affect the market in the future, and may possibly delay the REE market recovery.  Future rare earth producers outside of China should keep a very close eye on this situation and how it may impact future pricing.

Investor awareness. If the investment community becomes more alert to the critical role that rare earths play in modern society — as well as the supply and demand crunch that may be looming — there may be a “rare earth rush” of sorts. Rare earth companies have been able to raise substantial money over the last year, so we may be at the beginning of a wave of new interest. However, the industry is cognizant that any prominent misstep by a public rare earth company may sour investors on the sector.

Judging from conversations with public REE companies and private owners of REE projects, it seems that the public has become much more aware of the rare earth sector.  However, there are still very few people who know what rare earths are and what they are used for — so even though awareness is on the rise, there is still a very long way to go!

Thorium research accelerating. Thorium (Th) is often found with rare earth elements, and must be properly disposed of — and this can be costly. However, there is a burgeoning interest in using Th as fuel for nuclear reactors. The great advantages that Th has over uranium are that it does not need to be enriched and it cannot be used for nuclear weapons. Current technology is in various stages of testing, and the nuclear industry has yet to embrace Th. But there is potential for the future, and it is quite possible that this current REE liability could become an asset within a decade.

With the recent collapse of energy prices, it will be challenging for Th to break into the market as a viable short-term alternative to uranium.  That said, president-elect Obama has proclaimed a green initiative that may include alternatives such as thorium in the future.  We will continue to watch this.  In the meantime, Indian researchers are working diligently on their thorium reactor technology, as they have plentiful supplies of thorium bearing monazite.

The unforeseen. Every year there are exceptional surprises in this business — 2008 will likely follow the trend!

The severity of the economic crash has taken much of the REE industry by surprise.  Rare earth end-users are being very cautious right now.  This will continue until the market fog lifts a bit.

If you have any comments or suggestions please make use of the Contact form, because it helps me to provide better service to you and the rare earth community.

Next week I will be looking at the possibilities for 2009.

By Stanley Trout

Often we describe a specific time in human history as an age, such as the age of reason, the bronze age or the middle ages. Many people call the time we live in today the “Information Age” because of the rise and dominance of computers in our lives, and I would agree that it is an apt description. However, I would like to discuss another name that may well describe the time we live in, especially the future, and that is the “Age of Sensors”.

Why sensors? It really is a natural consequence of our heavy use of computers. Computers give us a great tool for handling data of all kinds: the names and addresses of all our contacts may be organized in Outlook, our checkbook may be organized by Quicken and all our correspondence may be stored as Word files. Computers handle all this data and much more with ease. In fact, if we think about how we interact with the computer, by keyboard, mouse, scanner, web cam, etc., they are all just ways to enter information into the computer. With such a useful tool at our fingertips, I think that the challenge of our time, our new frontier, is finding more and better ways to bring information to computers and that is why I say we live in the age of sensors. Let me offer just one simple example.

I had the opportunity this summer to rent a Toyota Prius for a week. It is a great example of modern automotive technology. The actual fuel economy numbers are really impressive and significantly better than the new EPA mileage ratings. (see www.fueleconomy.gov) I drove almost 1600 miles and consumed a little over 30 gallons of gasoline, for an average of just over 52 miles per gallon. (The metric numbers are 2500 km, 115 liters and 4.5 l/100 km.) But my initial interaction with this car was of a much more mundane matter. I had a low tire pressure warning. Checking with my tire gauge revealed the pressure in one of my tires was just 22 psi (1.5 x 105 Pa), well below the 35 psi (2.4 x 105 Pa) recommended by Toyota, yet not low enough to be readily noticeable to someone just looking at the tire. In this case, a small sensor from the tire was giving me the warning. Technically, this is a difficult sensing problem. It must be done wirelessly since the tire must be free to rotate, yet this technology is available on most cars these days.

This example gives us a clue about how much sensing technology has improved in the last few decades. Our automobiles are now a vast collection of sensors, continuously feeding a wide variety of information to the onboard computer about the condition of the car, its passengers and its environment. Sensors give us the ability to optimize the performance of the car, provide troubleshooting information to our mechanic and improve our personal comfort as we drive. Over time we can expect the number, the sophistication and the benefits of sensors to increase.

What is at the heart of a sensor? The simplest sensors are merely switches, that turn on and off in response to a particular stimulus. The automotive crash sensor is a good example of this idea, and since it is a magnetic sensor, it is one of my favorites. Here the sensor is normally off, but under the proper conditions – the rapid acceleration of a crash – the sensor switches on, deploys the air bag and may even initiate an automatic call to OnStar® for help. This sensor is an example of excellent engineering, since the sensor must activate with absolute certainty during a crash, and never at any other time. Not deploying during a crash is dangerous for the passengers and a false deployment is expensive and also potentially dangerous.

More complicated sensors are proportional, meaning that the response to a stimulus varies with the magnitude of the stimulus. A photosensor in a camera is a good example of this technology. The exposure is adjusted in response to the ambient light. The less available light the longer the exposure and the greater the aperture opening.

There are two great challenges on the horizon for sensors. One is coming up with new materials to make new sensing devices. This is an active area of research operating at the intersection of physics, chemistry, materials science, electrical and mechanical engineering. The goal of this research is to find new ways to take advantage of some unusual material characteristics to measure some parameter. That parameter could be almost anything, speed, time, temperature, distance, pressure, etc. While many sensors have some sort of magnetic connection, not all sensors are based on magnetic phenomena.

The other challenge is learning to apply the sensor technologies we already have to solve some nagging control problems. Advances in this technology have brought us vehicles that are far more efficient, less-polluting and safer than they were just a decade or so ago. They allow us to control rush hour traffic by adjusting traffic signals in response to the prevailing traffic pattern, to control the temperature and lighting of our homes, to monitor our factories remotely, for example. All we need is a sensor, a computer and some software. But we should expect wider deployment of sensors in all facets of our daily lives, as we learn more about how to use sensors. This means that if you have a device that you would like to control, either a system already exists, or it will be available soon.

This is why I am so optimistic about this technology and believe that we are in the “Age of Sensors”.

More information about Stanley Trout can be found at http://www.spontaneousmaterials.com/.