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Research on Rare Earth Elements

The Anchor House, Inc.

2010: Here We Are — Now Where Will We Go?

January 2nd, 2010

By Clint Cox

Happy New Year!

This is more of an exercise in entertainment than it will be informative.  There are so many different directions the rare earth industry could go this year that it would be foolish to make formal predictions (so please consider anything I say here very informal). Enough tip-toeing, let’s dance!

The Economy

I stated that this would be an issue last year, and I still believe that this can have a great deal of effect on the marketplace for rare earths.  If we have a repeat credit crisis or a currency crisis of any sort, the REE business may be greatly affected. It is good to look at the broader economy as the backdrop for the REEs.

China Export Quotas

I don’t think China will restrict export of any REEs, but I have been wrong many times before. The quotas may stay flat or go down a bit, but I think the fear of China cutting off the West is not going to happen right now.

April 1, 2010 Report

Congress will get its first formal look at the rare earths industry as they have ordered a report studying the REEs due on April Fools Day. I don’t know what the impact of this study will be (or if it will be public information). Depending on its content, and what is done with it, it may have substantial repercussions — at least in North America.

Nonstop Rare Earth Conferences

The media attention placed on rare earths in 2009 sparked tremendous interest, and now there are a number of groups providing new, improved, or watered down ways to learn about REEs! There are some very legitimate conferences that have been around for some years, and there will be some worthwhile newcomers.  However, there is a lot of talk about being “the” rare earth conference. Here is a partial list of currently scheduled conferences (more conferences will be scheduled throughout the year):

SAIMM “Thorium & Rare Earths”, Cape Town

DMTC “2nd Annual Strategic Materials Conference”, Cleveland

SME, Phoenix (both strategic metals and rare earth sessions)

TREM “Technology & Rare Earth Metals for National Security and Clean Energy”, Washington DC

Objective Capital’s “Rare Earths, Specialty & Minor Metals Investment Summit”, London

ICRE 2010 “6th International Conference on Rare Earth Development and Application”, Beijing

Metal Events “6th International Rare Earths Conference”, Hong Kong

This list does not include conferences such as Indaba or the PDAC which will have dedicated rare earths talks or programs.

The Media

Last year’s MIIT draft out of China was the catalyst that captured the media’s attention.  Since then, there has been substantial coverage of REEs in green technologies and other important applications. This is a true wildcard — I believe that the media coverage will continue, but I also believe that most stories will be ill-informed.  There has been some excellent, responsible coverage, but I anticipate more sensational journalism grabbing headlines regarding the rare earths.

The Development of Sichuan

Most of the talk surrounding the LREE in China revolves around Bayan Obo and Baotou.  However, the Jiangxi Copper Group has made it clear that they will be developing the Maoniuping deposit in Sichuan (also referred to sometimes as “Mianning”). Jiangxi Copper will be spending hundreds of millions of dollars to develop the site, and it is unclear what impact it will have on the market. This should be followed closely, as they have a substantial deposit of rare earths.

New Projects

When I began covering this industry there were only a handful of junior exploration companies that would claim that they had anything to do with rare earth.  Now there are well over 100.  There will be new projects coming to light in 2010, and we look forward to some surprises.

IPO Fest?

There may be several players coming into the public market in 2010 — some of these may be significant. Let’s watch and see if this pans out, and how much money they raise.

The Unknown

Ah! Saved the best for last. There will be unknown events in 2010 that will undoubtedly rock the rare earth market. We will watch with eyes wide open, but we will certainly be surprised like everyone else!

If you know of any other rare earth events or conferences, or if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me at the Contact page.

How Did We Do? Looking Back on 2009.

December 17th, 2009

By Clint Cox

In January of this year I examined the issues that I believed that the rare earth world would be facing in 2009.  Below, I have analyzed my own text (for better or worse) — my current comments are in blue:

Rare Earths in 2009: Cover Your Eyes, Grit your Teeth, and Hope for the Best!

January 18th, 2009

By Clint Cox

Welcome to the New Year!  The Rare Earth industry is one that has the ability to humble us all — so please view the following comments as “possibilities” and not “prognostications”. Without further adieu, key issues to watch for in 2009:

The Economy
This is the story for rare earth in 2009. How bad will it get? How will it affect the REE market? Rare earth prices have begun to drop.

In brief, this year could be catastrophic for global economics. Bouts of panic may pop from the globe like a truckload of kettlecorn. Spending on rare earth exploration and consumer end-products that use REEs could deteriorate dramatically. This could be a tough year.

The Global economy stagnated or got worse in terms of employment, housing, consumer spending, numbers of food stamp participants, government deficits, etc.; but improved in terms of stock market and commodity prices.  We must wait to see the effect on this years Christmas shopping numbers, but the economy didn’t go “catastrophic” as I anticipated.

Another bonus for rare earths this year on the macro scale was the Climate Change debate and the REE awakening by the media (and that many green technologies rely on rare earths in some form).

World Conflict
Depending on which nations are involved in conflict in 2009, and how bad it gets, there may be an increased desire for the REEs for use in military applications. It is somewhat tragic to view war as a positive for this market, but it is possible.

The USA has committed to increased troop levels in Afghanistan, but there hasn’t been any significant outbreak of new conflict that would affect the REE world.

The US Congress has, however, decided to formally investigate the use of REEs in defense applications, with a report due by April 1, 2010.

Current Projects
Lynas Corporation says they are on schedule to be producing REE product by the 4Q of this year. If there are delays or problems it may affect the perception of the rare earth market. The industry is hoping for success in this (and other projects). If Lynas is successful, it could lead to funding for other projects. If Lynas has delays, it could provide opportunities for other companies, or it could taint the entire sector – it is very difficult to know.

Financing for many current exploration projects is certainly in question.

That said, the world is desperately in need of viable projects outside of China that can compete economically.

Wow. What a year on this front! Lynas lost significant funding early in the year, and it looked fairly bleak.  However, with the phenomenal interest in rare earths this year, Nick Curtis and Lynas were able to pull off a major financing of $450 million. On a different note, they will not be in production by the end of this quarter, as they anticipated. In Hong Kong, Matthew James stated that they hoped to be in production by the first half of 2011.

Many other companies have been raising money in pursuit of rare earths — there are now well over 100 projects with some level of funding.

Chinese Output / Stockpiling
What will Chinese output be this year? Will the iron mine at Bayan Obo (which has enough REE by-product to make it the largest REE mine in the world) continue at the current pace if there is a downturn? The Chinese have already declared that they will create a stockpile of 300,000 tonnes of concentrate. That is a lot of concentrate! That will hang over the light rare earth (LREE) market like a dark cloud for years to come.

How much production can the South China clays handle? Will Sichuan regain previous form? There are always surprises in Chinese production – undoubtedly, this year will provide more fireworks.

Bayan Obo is still producing. The amount of stockpiled concentrate will, most likely, be less than that which is listed above. The Chinese are looking at streamlining South China Clay production (as described below). Sichuan may become a substantial player as consolidation takes hold.

Chinese Consolidation
The consolidation has begun. The plan is to consolidate each of the three REE mining districts – Bayan Obo/Baotou, Sichuan, and South China Clays – under one Chinese company each. This will create substantial efficiencies and allow the Chinese regulatory agencies to more closely control the flow of REEs.

This is a slow process, but has the potential to change the face of the REE industry within China. It may create efficiencies within the different producing regions that haven’t been seen before.  This is especially true in South China with the clay production. The details are still being hammered out, but it looks like this may be a game-changer on some level.

Chinese Export Quotas
The Chinese have once again cut export quotas for the first 6 months of 2009 to 15,043 tonnes versus 22,780 tonnes in 2008 (http://www.metal-pages.com/news/story/36952/).

Will this have impact? With companies outside of China working down their own stockpiles, will they need to purchase as much? These are issues to watch closely this year.

This is where we got the FIREWORKS this year! I’m not sure anyone saw this coming (at least on the scale it erupted). The MIIT draft which spoke of the possible cessation of export for certain elements set off a chain of events that will forever mark 2009 as a pivotal year in the industry. The story really broke in September with the world’s media jumping on the story and wondering aloud with the headlines “Will the Chinese cut off the world from Rare Earths?” Despite a lot of bad information and misinterpretation, the controversy helped bring rare earths into the spotlight.

Even in the midst of the hooplah, REE prices didn’t spike as one might think. However, the prices of junior exploration companies searching for REEs did spike, and a lot of new money has flowed into the sector.

Who Blinks First?
Chinese officials have made it very clear: If foreign manufacturing companies move their facilities to China, they will be guaranteed a steady supply of rare earths. Many technology companies are reluctant to do this because they want to protect their intellectual property, but will the temptation of an endless REE supply be too much?

Companies continue to move operations to China, but the tension still exists.

The Unexpected
This will probably remain a staple in the annual market outlook for years to come. New technologies, new exploration discoveries, basic economics, and geopolitics can all reverberate through our small industry. It is the nature of this fascinating sector.

The unexpected event this year was certainly the worldwide attention REEs garnered as a result of the MIIT Draft controversy. In addition, it has also been discovered by the media that REEs are necessary for the fulfillment of many green technologies. There will be more of the unexpected!

I wish you all the very best in 2009!

Please take time to contact me with any questions you may have on the “Contact” page.How d

What Happened in Washington DC?

November 4th, 2009

By Clint Cox

I apologize for the delay in getting this story posted!

Let me start by saying that Infocast’s Conference held October 20-22 in Washington DC entitled “Managing Supply Chain Risks for Critical & Strategic Metals: Rare Earth Metals, Minor Metals, Platinum Group Metals, Lithium” had quite a mix of attendees — end users, government, exploration companies, media, consultants, and first nations participants. Here are some pics of the signage and venue:

Georgetown_Holiday_InnHoliday Inn, Georgetown


SignageConference Title and Sponsors


Conference_roomConference Room, it was standing room only on DAY ONE


The Conference was wide-ranging and was split into separate subject matter for each day. Rare earths were definitely a focus for the Conference, and I heard a number of perspectives that I had not heard from the podium before.

DAY ONE

There was plenty of talk regarding the stockpiling of strategic elements — both pro and con. Anthony Lipmann provided an in-depth look at the history of stockpiles, beginning with the Biblical Joseph and bringing us up to present day. Mr. Lipmann provided the following as the purpose of stockpiles:

  1. Fear of resource exhaustion
  2. Fear of price distortion
  3. Fear of resource wars

From the above, it is clear that fear seems to be the driving force behind stockpiling. Mr. Lipmann also gave evidence that the market can negate the need for stockpiling by recycling or utilizing new mining methods, but the essence of his talk was really, “Do stockpiles work?”

Dudley Kingsnorth made an excellent point that REEs are not commodities, but that they are customer specific. He also showed a slide of the major rare earth projects of the world and when they hoped to be in production.

We also heard from Gary Billingsley (Great Western Minerals), David Kennedy (Less Common Metals — owned by Great Western), Don Bubar (Avalon Rare Metals), and Dave Hodge (Commerce Resources).

Jim Hedrick of the USGS spoke about lower cost rare earths within China because of faster permitting, no export tariffs, cheaper labor costs, and subsidized fuel. He also listed alternate sources for REEs outside of China.

Chris Hartshorn of Lux Research gave a very different view of the markets for strategic metals. One of the most interesting things he said was that there will be no pressure on lithium as a result of hybrid or electric vehicle markets. In contrast, Yaron Vorona of the International Lithium Alliance stated, “If the future is electric then the future is lithium.”

DAY TWO

Gregg Brandyberry of Wildfire Commerce (and former VP of Procurement in Global Systems and Operations, GlazoSmithKline) got us started on day two.  He spoke about supply and demand and they “take care of themselves in the long term”.  He highlighted four key issues influencing supply risk:

  1. Scarcity
  2. Disaster
  3. Politics
  4. Financial

His statement that, “There’s never been a riskier time since we’ve been alive,” was striking and seemed to resonate with the audience.  He went on to give some details regarding supply disruption, financial market collapse, corporate reputation, and  brand image.

One of his most engrossing thoughts had to do with the newfound power of NGOs (Non-Government Organizations). As NGOs focus on human rights and sustainability issues, the mining industry needs to be very aware of trends in this regard and be prepared to proactively address them.

Ed Richardson of Thomas & Skinner had my favorite risk quote of the day: “If you manage risk you are typically successful, if you don’t — you typically fail.”

Darrell Rishel of Corning spoke about engineering around rare metals if they can’t guarantee supply.  Rishel also emphasized the importance of understanding the entire supply chain for all materials used in production.

Stuart Burns of Aptium Global explained some of the evolving technologies for recycling REEs — including Prius batteries.

Jeff Green of J.A. Green & Company had an abundance of information regarding the government’s approach to the strategic metals.  He stated that, “We need a secure supply chain”, and explained this in terms of four steps:

  1. Mining
  2. Refining
  3. Alloying
  4. Manufacturing

Green also stated that the government likes to talk with groups of companies that have come together with a common cause.

Ivan Herring, former procurement expert at General Motors, said that it was 5-10 times as risky to rely on by-product production for supply.  I find this very interesting, as it shows that end-users view the market differently than exploration companies that tout by-product production on occasion.

DAY THREE

Stephen Freiman of Freiman Consulting provided a fascinating slide showing the history of the use of elements from the periodic table in computer chips.  In the 1980s, just 11 elements were used to make the delicious chips that serve our technological society.  By the 2000s the number of elements had grown to 45 — of these, 15 are rare earths!

The last panel of the morning session was about investment opportunities within the sector. Dudley Kingsnorth moderated the panel with John Kaiser, Tracy Weslosky, and Dr. Philippa Malmgren participating.

Kaiser spoke about the difficulty in evaluating REEs, and that typical mining analysts have trouble applying the discounted cash flow method to get good, relyable numbers for REE companies.  He also discussed the need to understand the difference between economic versus strategic logic.

Kingsnorth walked us through a timeline of steps that need to be undertaken for an REE exploration company.  The basic steps included proving the resource, defining the process (to get the rare earths out of the ore and into the market), and pre-feasibility.

Weslosky highlighted the need for an effective valuation method for companies pursuing the REEs.

Dr. Malmgren spoke about the broader landscape of macro economics and its possible affect on the tangible assets and the rare earth sector. Is deflation or inflation coming next? Many larger funds are looking for inflation on the horizon, she argued (quite persuasively, I might add!). They will move from paper money to hard assets. She said to get ready for increased volatility — its coming.

The afternoon session on Day Three was sparsely attended, but interesting, nonetheless.  John Kaiser and Ivan Herring each spoke at length about “Virtual Hedging”. Kaiser walked us through his 9 steps in Getting to a Mine:

  1. Grassroots
  2. Target Generation & Drilling
  3. Discovery Delineation
  4. Infill Drilling
  5. Bulk Sample & Metallurgy
  6. Pre-feasibility
  7. Permitting, Marketing, & Feasibility
  8. Construction
  9. Production

Herring explained the differences between “Virtual Hedging” and “Synthetic Hedging”.  He had a number of approaches that I hadn’t heard, and some common solutions such as offtake agreements.

All-in-all, very worthwhile.  Here is my parting shot:

DC_Capitol

Interview With Mark Smith: Part 1

October 12th, 2009

The following interview took place on 17 September 2009.

CLINT COX: I am interviewing Mark Smith, CEO of Molycorp Minerals, LLC, now a private company. Why don’t we start with when and how did you get interested in the rare earth market?

SMITH: Clint, I had the very fortuitous fortune of being a lawyer for Unocal at one point in my life and Molycorp had some permitting, some environmental permitting issues that they were dealing with and I was asked by the Unocal law department to go and help Molycorp with those issues. They happened at the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine at Mountain Pass, California, and that’s when I got to start working with them, and I’ve always looked at that facility as being an absolute crown jewel with the right ownership and the right tender loving care.

COX: So I take it that you guys now have the right ownership with the right tender loving care.

SMITH: We feel we do. Yeah, we have a great group of private equity investors who have looked at this asset very hard, did a lot of due diligence on it, looked at all the rare earth markets, came to a conclusion that they could take this asset and reach its potential and they are very committed to doing so. And I think it’s exactly what this asset needed.

COX: While you’re talking about them, let’s jump ahead to what rare earth experience does each team member that bought Mountain Pass bring to Molycorp Minerals? You’ve got Resource Capital Fund, Pegasus Partners, Goldman Sachs group, Traxys North America and the Carint Group (which I’m not familiar with). Can you say what each one of these bring to the table?

SMITH: Well, Resource Capital Funds, of course, is a boutique private equity group that does nothing other than invest in mining and minerals. So what they bring to the table is expert mining and mining engineering, geology qualifications and I would also like to say for the record, that they are an absolutely wonderful shareholder because we can tap into that organization any day, anytime, and they can bring to us a wealth of knowledge about mining projects and mineral resources all over the world. So we never have to reinvent the wheel on anything. So they have just been outstanding. The person from Resource Capital Funds that was primarily responsible for the negotiations was a gentleman by the name of Ross Bhappu, who is Chairman of our Board of Directors. And it’s interesting to note that Ross’s father was a metallurgist and he actually did quite a bit of metallurgy consultation for Molycorp down at the Questa molybdenum mine in New Mexico. So Ross actually had a very close acquaintance so to speak, or a close connection with the Molycorp organization for a long period in his life.

The next shareholder I’d like to talk about who also has a very close connection with Molycorp is Traxys. The president and CEO of Traxys of course is Mark Kristoff. He’s on our board of directors. He was also primarily responsible for negotiating on behalf of the group of private equity investors. Mark’s father was actually the vice president of marketing and sales for Molycorp at one point in time. I believe one of his very first trips to a mine was a trip to the Mountain Pass facility in California. So Mark has known these facilities for a very long period of time, too. Now, in addition to Mark having that close connection through his father and kind of growing up in the Molycorp organization, Mark runs Traxys, which is a metals trading organization. They do about $4 billion worth of metals trading a year, and I think there’s no finer organization to work with in terms of finding customers and landing deals for our products. So they are an excellent addition to our organization.

We also have Goldman Sachs. What Goldman Sachs, brings to the table is obviously excellent financial sense. If I recall correctly, I believe Goldman Sachs had invested quite heavily into Lynas Corporation at one time as well and so they had a background and a history in the rare earth sector, at least for a period of time. I think they came in with their eyes wide open so to speak, in terms of what the potential for this market was and the potential for this resource.

Pegasus Capital is a private equity group that likes to focus on, I guess what would be called green technology type companies. And when they understood the connection between the rare earth minerals and the green technologies or clean energy technologies that all of us are so excited about right now, like hybrid vehicles, compact fluorescent light bulbs and, wind power generation, they became an investor as well. And we take great pride in having Pegasus as an investor because they only like to invest in clean green type entities. As management, we took this that as a really good sign of confidence in our ability to run the facility and to operate it safely.

The other group, Carint, was a group of private individuals, with a very small portion of the ownership, and then I have a small interest in the company as well. It’s a very diverse group of shareholders. We have outstanding, full dialogue on just about every issue that confronts the company, and I feel very, very confident at the conclusion of all those discussions that we reach very good decisions because of the diversity and broad view that everybody brings to the table for those discussions.

COX: What was the original driving force behind the deal? How did it come together? How did you guys decide to do this?

SMITH: Well, a little bit of interesting background here, too. When this group of private equity investors got together and put an offer in front of Chevron for this asset, I was actually the president and CEO of Chevron Mining at the time, and Chevron Mining owned and operated the Mountain Pass asset and the Questa moly mine. We had three coal mines and we were in the process of trying to open up an additional coal mine up in Wyoming. We had some other businesses as well, but those were the primary ones. When we received the offer letter from this group of investors, within 30 days there was actually, and I can’t remember the exact number anymore, it was either seven or nine, offer letters from different parties who were interested in this asset. We have no idea why it all happened in a 30-day period. But when I was wearing my Chevron hat and these multiple offers came in a very, very short time basis; we thought we may have something here. We wanted to figure out why there’s was such an interest.

We ultimately decided to enter into a bidding process for the assets, as opposed to just grabbing one letter and assuming that it was better than another. So we entered into confidentiality agreements with all the parties. We went through a first phase where they were able to do a limited amount of due diligence on the facility and on the people. At the same time Chevron was able to do a limited amount of due diligence on all the parties that were interested. We asked everyone to submit a phase one bid if they were interested at the conclusion of this limited due diligence period As part of that phase one bid, one very important point that we required was that there could not be a financing contingency associated with it. And that narrowed down the group of interested parties very, very quickly to three, and we started working then with the three parties to go through a second round of bidding on the asset, where more information was divulged to each of them. We of course got to do more due diligence on them.

There were many considerations that we looked at as part of that round two. It was not simply the price of the assets. We looked at price, we looked at the commitment to the people that were working at those assets, their commitment to the environment, their commitment to bringing the business back on line and putting the capital and a very simple term, tender loving care, back into this business so it could reach its full potential. We looked at all of those considerations and ranked the bids in round two. This group of private equity investors came to the top very quickly. That all occurred probably about late February of 2008. The initial letters that I talked about earlier, were all received in roughly August of 2007.

So we went through those two rounds of bidding and by the end of February, we had narrowed it down to this group and we started the negotiation process with this group of investors. We had reached a definitive agreement with this group of private equity investors in roughly June of 2008 when the agreement was signed by all parties. We then worked to close the deal, and the deal was ultimately closed on September 30, 2008. Long explanation, but it’s such a fascinating story that I wanted to get into some of these details.

COX: Were you surprised at all that the deal was closed, given the market at the time? There was chaos for a couple weeks before that deal closed. And with these guys being involved, I was actually very surprised that the deal went through.

SMITH: Very good point. However , we knew who the investors were, and we knew how much due diligence that they had done on the market, the forecasts for the future. When you look at the track record of this group of investors you discover that their average holding time for an investment is seven years. That was very, very attractive to us because it meant we weren’t simply selling this asset to a group of investors who were then going to turn around and flip it to somebody else and just try to make a profit. They were committed to the facility and to getting it back up and running at its full potential. So yes, there were a lot of issues and questions that were raised right at the end of the deal when it was closed, but we felt confident on the our side of the table that we were dealing with people who were values based and were going to carry forward on this deal, regardless of what the economic situation turned into at that time.

COX: That’s interesting. So how has the rare earth market changed since the deal was completed?

SMITH: Well, as you know, it didn’t do too well from September 2008 through about June 2009. So for roughly a nine-month period, the market really struggled. Prices went down over 50% on some of the rare earth commodities. Volumes were literally stagnant. I mean, people just weren’t even buying material anymore. But that’s the beauty of having this group of investors own the company. They have the financial wherewithal to get through issues like that. They supported our ongoing production as we were what I call, perfecting our processes, and have been extremely supportive through the entire, almost one year now that we’ve been in existence.

COX: So Mark, can you walk us through a brief history of Mountain Pass?

SMITH: Yes, a very illustrious history, I might add. In the late ’40s, there were a couple of prospectors that were out in the area, and the hot commodity at the time was uranium. They were actually looking for uranium. And lo and behold, they’re walking through this area, the high mountain desert and they get a couple clicks on their Geiger counter. Nothing that got them excited from the standpoint of uranium.,but there was something that was different there, and they had no idea what it was. So they grabbed a sample of this material, took it back into Las Vegas, to the USGS office there and asked them, “What is this?” And USGS said we’re going to have to take a couple of weeks to figure it out. They did all their analytical work and found out that it was bastnaesite, and told the prospectors, “This is bastnaesite, this is some of the richest bastnaesite we’ve ever seen in our lives, this looks like this could be something”. So the prospectors filed their claims.

COX: Was this the Birthday Claim?

SMITH: Yes, the Birthday Claim, is where it started. That was in 1948 when the claims were filed, and then I believe it was about that same time, shortly after they filed those claims, Molycorp, Incorporated, which was a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange at the time, purchased those claims from the prospectors and then started to put together their mining plans.

In 1952, Molycorp started mining the rare earth deposit at the surface outcrops, and put in small processing facilities. Now at the time, what was really interesting about this is that the understanding of rare earths was not at its best. The use of rare earth was extremely limited. As a matter of fact, the major use at the time was for the flint in lighters. It was the lanthanum, cerium mischmetal that was used, and that was the product that was produced out there for many, many years.

Then in the late, mid to late ’60s is when the colored television became the hot item in every household. And with the color televisions, the way they were manufactured at the time, they needed europium in order to create the red color, the red phosphor in the screen. Mountain Pass had europium in its ore body, and Mountain Pass at one point in time, was mining the bastnaesite from the pit, exclusively to recover the europium. The europium is probably about 0.1%, maybe even a little less of that ore body. So we learned a lot of lessons during that time. Europium was at a price by the way, that justified all the mining and all the processing costs to only recover the europium.

But what we learned as we look back in history, is that the rare earth industry has had that problem, where one of the rare earth elements, or maybe two, will all of a sudden become very, very popular and everybody wants to buy them. The problem is, what do you do with the rest of them because they’re all in the ore body, and you have to take them out and separate each one. What do you do with those other materials while they’re not as high in demand? You end up stockpiling them is what you do. And that’s been a historic problem within the rare earth mining industry and at Mountain Pass in particular, where you were stockpiling large quantities of material while you were selling other quantities of material.

By the late 1980s, the facility was being run for more than just europium. Cerium was becoming popular as a glass polishing agent and Lanthanum was beginning its illustrious history in the FCC catalyst industry. So now you’re starting to talk about some very large volumetric uses of the more prevalent rare earths that we had in the bastnaesite ore, and things started to even out a little bit more. We had a lot more units to spread production costs out over. We weren’t stockpiling materials so feverishly anymore. And the industry looked quite a bit better at that time.

In the late ’80s, early ’90s, Mountain Pass was supplying the world with probably about 70% of its rare earth needs. However, the market was only about 40,000 tons a year back then. And so when we say 70%, it sounds like a large percentage, but it’s not a huge amount of tonnage compared to today’s market, which is upwards of 125,000 tons. Mountain Pass continued to operate.

It had some environmental issues that it confronted in the ‘mid to late ’90s. They didn’t help Mountain Pass’s economic situation, but the environmental issues certainly weren’t the reason for the facility to stop mining. There were also, of course, the Chinese found rare earths in their country, and started to exploit those resources and really brought their products out to the market at much lower prices than what the industry had seen for quite some time. Again, it didn’t help our situation, but that isn’t what ultimately caused us to stop mining.

Interestingly enough, what caused the facility to stop mining in 2002 was the fact that we had no more capacity in our tailings basin. And we didn’t have a permit to build a new tailings basin. We had started the permitting process for the facility back in 1989 thinking that by 2002, when the tailings basin capacity would be realized, we would have a new permit and we would be able to build a new tailings facility. We were about two years off. We got our final permit, our 30-year mine plan and our approved environmental impact report in 2004. So it took us 15 years to get our 30-year permit. But Clint, as bad as that may sound, it wasn’t the state of California that was causing that long time period.

We were having troubles deciding exactly what we wanted the facility to look like. What was considered state of the art in the late ’80s versus what was considered state of the art in the late ’90s in the rare earth industry really changed dramatically. So most of the cause for the delays in the permitting were really our own. But we did finally come to a conclusion on what we wanted the Mountain Pass site to look like, what we wanted it to produce, and how we were going to build it, and then we got the permit issued in 2004. By that time, we didn’t have any place to put tailings, so we had no choice but to stop the mining of ore.

We never stopped selling products because we had quite a bit in inventory In fact, we had two very large inventories of material which could be sold “as is” and were sold “as is”, but they also had the potential to be processed further so that we could realize added value by producing higher purity products. In about September of 2007, the facility restarted their solvent extraction units using a lanthanum concentrate material that had previously been stockpiled. The lanthanum concentrate was basically lanthanum and neodymium and praseodymium, and it was material that europium had been removed from. We started to reprocess that material with the idea that it was going to be a low rate of processing because we were trying to perfect our solvent extraction processing capabilities. We needed to show that we had the capability to produce high purity rare earth oxides. By high purity, I mean greater than 99% purity levels, which we had not done before in our business, because when we were at the peak of our production in the late ’80s and early ’90s, pure was upper 80 percentile –

COX: Right. It wasn’t necessary.

SMITH: The Chinese have really increased customer expectations in this regard and we knew that we had to change our product purity levels. We’ve been working on the solvent extraction side of our business since September of 2007 and I am extremely proud of our people on site because they truly have perfected this process. We’re now realizing recovery rates in excess of 98% in our solvent extraction processes, and we are today producing a greater than 99% purity didymium oxide and selling that on the market.

COX: Didymium being a praseodymium and neodymium –

SMITH: Correct During a recent trip to Europe, I discovered at a rare earth museum that at one time, didymium was considered an element until a very famous chemist over in Austria discovered that in fact, didymium consisted of praseodymium and neodymium.

COX: Where was that?

SMITH: Treibacher.

COX: Treibacher?

SMITH: Yes. We’ve been doing business with Treibacher for a long time. It was my first trip to their facilities. We met some really great people there and we look forward to an ongoing, long-term business relationship with them as well.

In April of this year, our board of directors approved the next capital project where we plan to take a very significant stockpile of concentrated bastnaesite, about 70% concentrate, and we’re going to process it from cracking through solvent extractors. We will be focused on perfecting the cracking process during this part of the project.

COX: So the cerium never goes through the solvent extraction. Everything else.

SMITH: That’s correct. And we have a new, innovative process that our technology group has come up with. They started in the lab, went to a bench scale, and then we actually built a small pilot scale unit and increased our production levels and continued to scale the process up. Everything has worked very well and now we’re going to take it up to a commercial level production rate. As a result, we will now have cerium in our product suite, along with the lanthanum and the didymium and our production levels will go up by 50% at that time.

COX: OK, so 3,000 tons per year in 2010. How many tons do you have of the bastnaesite concentrate?

SMITH: We have about 12 and a half thousand tons of material. We will be producing at about 3,000 tons per year. We’re only going to run that for two years at which point the bastnaesite concentrate product will be depleted. Now, you’ll probably notice that the math doesn’t quite work out there.

COX: Yeah, I wasn’t going to bring that up, but now that you –

SMITH: As part of our process for the next two years, we’ll have a rare earth fluoride material that we aren’t going to work on. We’re going to store and save it for full restart at the facility in 2012.

COX: How does that help with a full restart?

SMITH: It doesn’t help one way or the other. It just gives us more time to perfect the rare earth fluoride processing, which is a science all to itself. We’re trying to make sure we don’t take on any more projects than what we can successfully manage.

END PART 1

What Do the Chinese Think?

September 12th, 2009

By Clint Cox

The sheer volume of stories being published about rare earths lately has been staggering. I have wanted to include a number of links to these stories, but I realize that it might be frustrating because a number of the sources require subscription.  Many of the stories have had a distinctly Western slant on the recent issues, but several stories that have come from The New York Times, Science, and Metal-Pages.com have begun to reflect the Chinese thought behind the issues as well.

I would like to quote from a recent New York Times article entitled, “Backpedaling, China Eases Proposal to Ban Exports of Some Vital Minerals”,  because I believe it gives excellent insight into the current Chinese view on the recent MIIT draft:

Wang Caifang, deputy director general of China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, tried on Thursday to allay concerns that the draft rules would become the final policy, saying the regulatory review was still under way.

“China is very responsible. We will not take arbitrary decisions. All our decisions will be consistent with scientific development,” she said in a speech at the Minor Metals and Rare Earths 2009 conference in Beijing. “China will not close its doors.”

During an interview after her speech, Ms. Wang said that China would continue to set an annual quota for the export of each mineral, adding, “I don’t think it will be zero.”

So there you have it, “I don’t think it will be zero.” Perhaps some of the hooplah will die down for a bit as we await the final REE policy from the Chinese.

And now for a video in which it becomes clear that the Chinese view resources from the standpoint of reserves, not just production. Thus, this video suggests a mindset that is very different from the Western approach of looking at production as the primary way to view rare earths. In other words, the Chinese recognize that they have the largest reserves in the world, but others have reserves as well — it’s just that they have chosen not to produce from these reserves for one reason or another (mostly pricing).

It is true that the United States does have vast reserves of rare earths, but are not currently producing from these reserves, although there is some production from above-ground stocks. Of course, this is a vast oversimplification of the issue.  For example, the United States does not have great reserves of the heavy rare earths, and each country has its own unique set of mining laws and restrictions. So reserve numbers, in and of themselves, do not tell the whole story, but it provides another frame of reference.

Also, in the video, we meet a gentleman who is directly involved in the production of rare earths, and he explains the problem of rare earth pricing with so much internal competition in China. This is part of what China is currently addressing — they wish to consolidate rare earth operations into fewer companies to create more efficient use of resources and provide better environmental controls. Of course, with fewer competitors, it will also help to better control the pricing.

Keep in mind that the Chinese will most probably not ban export of any of the REEs, but the commentator speaks of restriction in the piece.

And now, the video:

China to restrict exports of strategic rare earth metals – CCTV 090509

Coverage of Chinese MIIT Draft: Facts Overlooked or Favoring Fiction?

September 1st, 2009

By Clint Cox

The controversy surrounding the recently released Chinese rare earth policy DRAFT by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has grown considerably, and I wanted to address some of the issues in a little more detail.

Please keep in mind that the document in question is a DRAFT, and it will undergo thorough review and revisions. When referenced below, “are being considered” means just that – we have to see the FINAL policy before we draw final conclusions.

Now some facts from the DRAFT:

  • Yttrium (Y) is NOT being considered for prohibition from export. Many reports have stated that yttrium would be prohibited, but it is ytterbium (Yb) that is being considered for export prohibition – not yttrium. This is key, as Y plays a much more important role in the world REE market than Yb (which is almost negligible).
  • All forms of europium (Eu), dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb) are NOT being considered for prohibition from export. Co-precipitates containing Y/Eu and La/Ce/Tb ARE BEING CONSIDERED TO BE PERMITTED (for use in phosphors), as will certain compounds and metals containing specific percentages of Tb and Dy. Some forms of Eu, Dy, and Tb are being considered for the export ban, but there are important forms that will be allowed.
  • Ytterbium (Yb), thulium (Tm), and lutetium (Lu), are being considered for the export ban. These elements have exceedingly small sales and are currently marginal in the rare earth market.
  • Consolidation and Centralization is being considered to continue. By cutting producers and consolidating operations, the Chinese hope to create better efficiencies in handling waste and preserving their assets.

The point is, we just don’t know yet. Many articles and press releases have treated this DRAFT as if it were final policy – tiptoeing along the boundary of available facts and favoring what is presently fiction. The storyline of China banning export of HREEs makes for good copy and great stock prices, but it ignores both the facts above as well as the integrity of the Chinese political process for creating FINAL policy from a DRAFT.

To be clear – this is not to say that much of the DRAFT won’t become policy – but premature speculation has taken the coverage of this industry down a dangerously speculative path.

I have to remind myself again and again (with varying degrees of success): Beware of over-simplification and easy answers with the rare earth elements.

Fun With Rare Earths at the US Patent Office

August 27th, 2009

By Clint Cox

It’s late at night and you’re sitting in front of your computer wondering what you can do to expand your brain.  Go to the US Patent Office and look up really cool inventions! Search by keyword. A friend of mine got me started on this.  Of course, I chose keywords related to rare earth and found some pretty cool stuff:

Super Shiny Stripes on the Street

Marvelous Microspheres! Rare earths are really coming to light — and reflecting it back to you! Courtesy of 3M, we have reflective pavement marking from Patent #5,853,851:

Another desirable component of the glass compositions of the present invention is a rare-earth metal oxide, such as La.sub.2 O.sub.3. Lanthanum oxide (La.sub.2 O.sub.3), for example, promotes glass formation, aids in melting, and helps raise the refractive index while not deleteriously affecting the acid resistance or crush strength.

Tiny lanthanum microspheres — coming to brighten a street near you?

Goodbye Kidney Stones?

I have heard that kidney stones are excruciatingly painful.  I am a big fan of relieving pain, so I bring you Patent #7,192,609:

This invention relates to a method of preventing or treating urolithiasis (kidney stone disease) by administering rare earth salts, e.g., Lanthanum salts, to bind dietary oxalate and preventing its absorption into the gastrointestinal tract.

Rare earths are known to have a variety of medical uses, but this is the first time I had seen a description of this patent.

Go-go Golf Balls

The merits of neodymium for use in magnets is well known, but who knew that we could smack the neo down the fairway? The Callaway Golf Company is employing the merits of rare earths in Patent #6,739,985:

Golf ball cores formed from blends of neodymium and cobalt synthesized high molecular weight butadiene rubber

I am under no illusions that rare earths will provide the solution to my hideous golf game, but I am glad to know that golfers may be getting better with a little help from neodymium!

4 Hidden Risks in Rare Earth Investing

August 10th, 2009

By Clint Cox

How well do we truly understand risk in the rare earth market? Most people who invest in the mining sector understand that there are risks inherent with mining operations.  These risks include (but are not limited to):

•    country—will that dictator really allow you to take all those diamonds out of his country?
•    pricing—will rhodium be $10,000 or $500 when that mine gets to production?
•    environmental—will the mess the last company left be the new company’s responsibility?
•    management—is the management really hoping to find gold bricks while sitting on the beach in Tahiti?

Mining is extremely risky, and for junior exploration companies to find “the next big one” is like looking for a sweetpea painted silver in a ball bearing shop.  As risky as mining is, in general, I would like to argue that the Rare Earth sector has its own special set of risks.

The risks are not confined to this list, but these provide a starting point:

1.    Competition. The Chinese are blessed with great resources and focus. The market tends to look at the junior exploration companies listed in Australia and Canada as the great hope for REEs outside of China. But don’t forget the big players that aren’t junior exploration companies.  There are private companies and interested parties from the top to the bottom of the supply chain. For example, recent press releases have shown that the Japanese (such as Toyota, Mitsubishi, JOGMEC and others) are looking for resources. These are players that intimately understand the market and its future requirements.

2.    The Numbers. Rare earths are quantified in a variety of ways: %REO, ppm, element distribution, % Heavies versus Lights, % recoveries, $ of rock in the ground, etc.  Some of these numbers are important, and some mislead. Some of the most important numbers are rarely available to investors! It is difficult to understand the absolute truth about what the numbers tell us. Just when I think I comprehend an answer – another snafu appears. Don’t be complacent with the numbers. Know that you know that you know.

3.    Experts. There are a lot of new “experts” emerging in the rare earth industry! The number of qualified experts in this field is small. There are some great geologists out there – but just a very small handful that have the expertise to claim that they specialize in this. Be sure that the expert whom you are banking on has the proper credentials and context necessary to speak the truth about rare earths. Remember – assay results alone don’t make experts!

4.    Whiplash. The day the NdFeB magnet was revealed, the market was rocked dramatically. The South China ion adsorption clays stunned the geos who thought you had to have significant %REO. The United States used to dominate this market.  Buckle your 5-point harness and put on your helmet! This market can be reshaped so fast that the cutting edge becomes dull and obsolete almost overnight. (If I’m mixing my metaphors, it’s only because this market is so perplexing!) What we think about the realities of this complex market today will undoubtedly be transformed by tomorrow.

The picture of the week: Rare earth metals oxidizing for your viewing pleasure:

REE_Oxidizing

Rare Earth Assay Results: What They Tell You and What They Don’t

August 3rd, 2009

By Clint Cox

There are a LOT of companies coming out with rare earth assay results now.  REEs have become a hot topic, and many companies are now throwing their assay results into the ring — hoping to become the next contender in the rare earth sector.

Assay results are often what companies use to project their legitimacy in the marketplace, and therefore it is critical to understand what these tests are really telling us.  According to the US Bureau of Mines (as provided by EduMine here) “assay” is defined as following:

Definition: assay
To analyze the proportions of metals in an ore; to test an ore or mineral for composition, purity, weight, or other properties of commercial interest.

So what do assay results tell us?
1.    How much rare earth is in that particular sample. Usually expressed in parts per million (ppm), assay results show the composition of a given sample of ore (or potential ore).  This gives a sense, in general terms, of what elements are found in the sample.  It is often converted to a percentage as well. They often don’t test for all of the REEs or show “trace” for the amounts.

2.    The comparative percentage of one element to another. This can show if the rare earth content of the sample skews towards the light rare earths (LREEs) or the heavies (HREEs).  Also, certain values of elements other than the REEs can provide clues as to the environment in which the REEs are found.

REE_rock_samples

What rare earths found within?

It is also important to know what assay results DO NOT tell us:
1.    What is the rare earth mineral (or minerals)? Sometimes it is assumed that you may have a particular mineral when you have a given set of assay results — I have made this assumption in the past myself. It is true that certain minerals may have a typical distribution of rare earths, but there may be other rare earth minerals involved.  A good example of this would be Thor Lake, which can have a number of rare earth-bearing minerals in a given sample. Other testing methods must be used to ensure that the rare earth minerals are properly identified. After all, it is critical to correctly identify the mineral that hosts the rare earths.

2.    Is the assayed sample representative? Beware of the infamous “grab sample”.  Many companies take special care to take samples only from what they believe to be the prospective ore body. However, it is often difficult to resist assaying the fantastic grab sample – perhaps that one sample found 40 meters up the cliff face that has that giant perfect crystal of bigdollarite!  Just make sure that the results that you are looking at come from samples that are taken from areas that are representative of the potential ore body.

3.    Metallurgy. You can receive fabulous assay results from complex mineralogy.  However, it may not ever be economic to get the REEs out the minerals. It takes lots of time, effort, and money to properly determine a process to create a saleable concentrate of rare earths.  Many companies are taking the proper steps to establish the processing needed to pull out the REEs, but beware of the assumption that the REEs can be easily pulled out of the ground.  If a company has $500 rock in the ground, but it takes you $2500 to pull out the rare earths – that project may not be feasible.

3 Secrets of Rare Earth Success in China

July 28th, 2009

By Clint Cox

1.  Rare Earth Elements (REE) come as a by-product from Bayan Obo iron ore operations. The rare earths are so plentiful at Bayan Obo, that until recently, they only recovered a fraction of the REEs.  This makes mining the REEs relatively cheap — as long as they mine iron ore, they will have REEs. Approximately 50% of the world’s total rare earth production comes from Bayan Obo. Also key is that bastnaesite is a rare earth mineral with a high theoretical 75% REO.

Bayan_Obo

Bayan Obo Bastnaesite

2.  The South China Clays are unique. These clays have fantastic rare earth distributions that are intensely skewed toward the heavy rare earths (HREEs), and are the main supplier of HREEs to the world market.  They have a very low REO% but they are able to be processed very cheaply with a relatively low degree of technology.  They are, however, faced with the challenge of preserving these resources while providing needed material to the marketplace — these are not limitless resources by any means.

3.  The Chinese are focused. Baotou alone has over 20,000 workers dedicated to the rare earth industry in one form or another.  Regional government agencies, as well as Beijing, are well aware of REEs as a strategic resource.  Research takes place in a methodical manner, and rare earth resources are managed on multiple levels.  The Chinese have specific, long-range plans to develop their rare earth sector, and there is a system of licenses, tariffs and export quotas in place to help protect the Chinese REE industry.  They have implemented a number of incentives to attract foreign investment.  In addition, the Chinese are very aware of developments outside China and have proven willing to participate beyond their borders.

BaotouREEZone

Small portion of scale model of Rare Earth Development Zone in Baotou

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